The U.S. Court of Appeals for the Fifth Circuit could strike down the Affordable Care Act (ACA) as unconstitutional any moment. Several states are preparing for the impact.
In April 2018, Texas, 19 other states, and two individual plaintiffs filed a complaint in the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of Texas, arguing that the ACA, as amended by more recent legislation, is unconstitutional. They won—the district court held in Texas v. U.S. that the individual mandate is unconstitutional, and that the rest of the law cannot be severed from that provision, so it also must fall. The Fifth Circuit heard oral arguments in July of 2019 and may hand down a decision at any time. Rather than waiting for the possible results of that decision, many states are acting now to soften the blow.
As discussed below, if the district court’s decision is upheld and ACA is struck down, the effects likely would be widespread and dramatic. Nearly 20 million people with insurance under the ACA would be at risk of losing such coverage, markets would be disrupted, and popular consumer protections would be ineffective, including those for persons with preexisting conditions and coverage of dependent children up to age 26. As we have discussed in this space before, the sudden absence of some less-talked-about provisions of the ACA could have serious impacts on the authority behind innovative payment models, several of which have states as direct participants. In addition, billions of dollars in federal Medicaid funding would be removed from states’ budgets.